New York Times stock is likely to trade after the decline in the first quarter

In front of the New York Times Building on April 29, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Gary Hirschhorn/Getty Images)

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Shares of The New York Times (NYSE: NYT), a diversified media company that includes newspapers, internet companies, television and radio stations, is set to report results for the first quarter of 2023 on Wednesday, May 10. Revenue and earnings missed consensus expectations marginally for first-quarter results. The company continues to grapple with an industry-wide slowdown in digital advertising. But the growth in the subscriber base is a huge positive in the long run. For upcoming first-quarter results, the New York Times sees digital-only subscription revenue up about 13% to 16% year-over-year (YoY), and total subscription revenue up 6% to 9%. Digital ad revenue and total larger ad revenue are expected to decline by low single digits.

Our forecast is for the NY Times valuation to be $39 per share, 2% below the current market price. Look at the interactive dashboard analysis at New York Times Earnings Preview: What do you expect in Q1 fiscal? for more details.

New York Times earnings estimates for fiscal year 2023Q1

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(1) Revenue is expected to be slightly below consensus estimates

Trefis estimates The New York Times’ revenue for the first quarter of 2023 at about $569 million, just below consensus estimates. In the fourth quarter, New York Times revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $667.5 million. This number came as subscriptions continued to offset ads in the revenue stream. To further break down the revenue gains, advertising revenue increased year-over-year to $179.2 million, but subscription revenue increased 18% year-over-year to $414.1 million. Other income fell to $74.3 million. The company changed its fiscal year to align with the calendar year, and as a result, the fourth quarter of 2022 had six additional days compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. In 2022, 9.55 million subscribers in New York purchased approximately 10.98 million paid subscriptions to its digital services and products. Print – Paid digital subscribers totaled 8.83 million. The company continues to be on track to achieve its new goal of reaching at least 15 million total subscribers by the end of 2027.

(2) Earnings per share likely to miss consensus estimates marginally

The New York Times’ first-quarter 2023 earnings per share is projected to be 16 cents per Trefis Analysis, which misses the consensus estimate marginally. New York Times-adjusted earnings came in at 59 cents per share, up 37% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2022.

(3) Appreciating the share price below the current market price

According to our NYT valuation, with an EPS estimate of approximately $1.26 and a P/E multiple of 31.0 times in fiscal 2023, this translates to a price of approximately $39, which is approximately 2% below the current market price.

It helps to see how her peers stack up. NYT Peers shows how NYT stock compares against its peers in important metrics. You’ll find other helpful comparisons of companies across industries in Comparing Peers.

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Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis helps you (via dashboards.trefis.com) understand how the company’s products, which you touch, read, or hear about every day, affect its stock price. Surprisingly, Trefis’ founders discovered that they, along with most other people, didn’t even understand the companies that seemed familiar around them: Apple, Google, Coca Cola, Walmart, GE, Ford, Gap, and more. This may include that even though you have invested money in these companies, perhaps you have worked with one of them for years as an employee, or consulted with it as an expert for a long time. You can play with assumptions, experiment with scenarios, and also ask questions to other users and experts. The platform uses extensive data to show in a single snapshot what drives the value of a company’s business. Trefis is currently used by hundreds of thousands of investors, company employees, and business professionals.

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